新疆福彩18选7走势图

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新疆福彩18选7走势图GUDINGDIANHUA:010-57130105

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2019年经济年中触底,资本市场否极泰来

时间:2019-04-25浏览:次

  一、2019年宏观形势主要判断:经济年中触底,资本市场否极泰来

  1、SHANGBANNIANZHONGGUOJINGJIHAIJIANGGUANXINGXIAHUA,SUIZHEZHUDONGQUKUCUNZHOUQIJIESHU、CHANNENGXINZHOUQIHEHUOBICAIZHENGZHENGCEXIAOYINGXIANXIAN,NIANZHONGJINGJIJIANGCHUDI,XIABANNIANQIWEN,QUANNIANQIANDIHOUWEN,JINGJISHISUFENGXIANHUANJIE。

  JINGJIYOUZISHENYUNXINGGUILV,GUANZHUSHIJIEJINGJI、JINRONG、KUCUN、CHANNENG、FANGDICHAN、ZHENGZHIDENGLIUDAZHOUQI。

  2、NIANCHUM2HESHERONGZENGSUCHUDIHUISHENG,ZHENGCEDI(2018NIAN3JIDU)、SHICHANGDI(2019NIAN1JIDU)、JINGJIDI(2019NIANZHONG)JIANGXIANHOUCHUXIAN。

  3、HUOBIKUANSONGHEZHOUQILUNDONG,ZHAISHI、GUSHI、FANGSHI、SHANGPINJIANGXIANHOUZHUANHAO。

  4、WEILAIHONGGUANZHENGCEJIYAOFANGZHIDUICHONGBUJISHI、LIDUBUGOU,YEYAOFANGZHILIDUGUODA、ZHONGZOULAOLU。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   5、ZHONGGUO“ZENGSUHUANDANG”BURU“JINGJILXING” CHUDIQI,YOUSANCICHUDI,DIYICISHI2016NIANCHU,DIERCISHI2019NIANZHONG。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   6、DANGQIANSANDATIAOZHAN:ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANJUYOUZHANGQIXINGHEYANJUNXING;JIANXINGJIANJINDERENKOUWEIJI;DIAODONGDIFANGZHENGFUHEQIYEJIADEJIJIXING,TUIDONGXINYILUNGAIGEKAIFANG。

  二、最黑暗的时候往往孕育着黎明:经济预测是哲学问题

  2018NIANZHONGGUOJINGJISHIFENKUNNAN,BEICHENGWEIGUOQUSHINIANZUICHA,NEIWAIXINGSHIFUZAYANJUN,JINRONGFENGXIANDAMIANJIBAOLU,ZIBENSHICHANGSHIFENDIMI。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   ZAISHEHUISHANGCHONGMAN“LICHANGLUN”“XIXISHUI”ZHIJI,ZAISHICHANGZUIWEIBEIGUANDESHIKE,WOMENZAI2018NIANDIFACHULEDUIZHONGZHANGQIZHONGGUOJINGJIGAIGEQIANJINGJIANDINGLEGUANDESHENGYIN,TICHU“2019NIANZHONGJINGJIERCITANDI”“ZUIHAODETOUZIJIHUIJIUZAIZHONGGUO,XINYILUNGAIGEKAIFANGJIANGKAIQIXINZHOUQI”“HENDUOGUPIAODOUHENBIANYI”,2019NIANCHUTICHU“FOUJITAILAI”。

  CONGSHIHONGGUANXINGSHIFENXI20NIAN,KANSHISHIBIANQIAN,CHAOQICHAOLUO,WEIYIBUBIANDEJIUSHIRENXINGHEZHOUQI。WOMENZAIWUNIANXIONGSHIHOUDE2014NIANYUCE“5000DIANBUSHIMENG”,ZAI2015NIANSHICHANGYIPIAN“MAIFANGCHAOGU”SHENGZHONG,LENGJINGTICHU“HAIBAYIGAOFENGDAMANZOU”“YIXIANFANGJIAFANYIBEI”。

  WEILAISHIFOUKEYIYUCE?ZHEIGEMIYIYANGDEWENTIZHANGQICHONGMANZHENGYI,YOUSHIJIUHAOXIANGWOMENZAITANLUNZHANXINGSHU。DANDANGWOMENKAISHITANSUOJINGJIZHOUQIHERENXINGBENZHIDESHIJIESHI,XIANRANYOUZHUYUWOMENLIJIESHENZHIZHANGWOSHIWUFAZHANGUILV,RANGJUECEGENGJIAZHENGQUE。ZHEIGESHIJIEMEIYOUSHUIJINGQIU,DANSHISHAOSHURENQUESHITONGGUONULIYONGYOULEDONGXISHIWUGUILVHERENXINGBENZHIDENENGLI,CONGERYUZHONGBUTONG。

  2019,“FOUJITAILAI”。ZUIHEIANDESHIHOUWANGWANGYUNYUZHELIMING,YIQIEDOUZAIZHOUQIKUANGJIALI。

  HONGGUANJINGJIXINGSHIZUIBIAOZHUNDEFENXIKUANGJIASHIQUSHIYUBODONG,JIJINGJIQIANZAIZENGZHANGLVHEZHOUQIBODONG。

  三、周期之轮:否极泰来

新疆福彩18选7走势图   2018NIANDEJINGJIKUNNANSHIJINGJIQIANZAIZENGZHANGLVXIAJIANG、ZHUDONGQUKUCUNZHOUQI、JINRONGQUGANGGANZHOUQI、FANGDICHANDIAOKONGZHOUQIHEZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANDENGDIEJIADEJIEGUO。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   JINGJIYOUZISHENYUNXINGGUILV,JIUSHIZHOUQI,JUNZHIHUIGUI。

  2017NIAN3JIDU-2019NIANSHANGBANNIANCHUYUKUCUNZHOUQIDEZHUDONGQUKUCUNJIEDUAN,YUJICHIXUZHI2019NIANZHONG,DUIJINGJITUOLEIHUANJIE,SHIJINGJICHUDIDEZHONGYAOYUANYIN。BENLUNKUCUNZHOUQIYUNXING:DIYIJIEDUANSHI2016Q1-2016Q2,BEIDONGBUKUCUN;DIERJIEDUANSHI2016Q3-2017Q2,LIANGJIAQISHENG,FANRONG,ZHUDONGBUKUCUN;DISANJIEDUANSHI2017Q3-2018Q3,LIANGDIEJIAZHI,ZHIZHANG,BEIDONGQUKUCUN;DISIJIEDUANSHI2018Q4-2019Q2,LIANGJIAQIDIE,SHUAITUI,ZHUDONGQUKUCUN。CONG2019NIAN3JIDU,KAIQIXINYILUNKUCUNZHOUQI。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   JINGGUO2010-2015NIANDANBIANXIAHUA,2016-2018NIANZHONGGUOCHANNENGZHOUQICHUDI,ZHANZAICHANNENGXINZHOUQIDEQIDIANSHANG:SHICHANGZIFAQUCHANNENGDIEJIAGONGJICEGAIGEHEHUANBAODUCHA,CHANNENGCHUQINGCHONGFEN,CHUANTONGXINGYECHANNENGTOUZICHIXUDAFUXIAHUASHENZHIFUZENGZHANG;GUISHANGGONGYEQIYECHANNENGLIYONGLVHUISHENGZHI76.5%;ZICHANFUZHAILVCONG58%JIANGZHI56.8%。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   FANGDICHANDIAOKONGZHOUQIHOUQI:QUKUCUNRENWUJIBENWANCHENG,DIAOKONGBUZAIJIAMA。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   JINRONGQUGANGGANZHOUQI:DANGQIANZHONGGUOZHENGCHUYUGAIGEKAIFANGYILAIDIYILUNJINRONGZHOUQIDEXIABANCHANG,FANGHUAZHONGDAJINRONGFENGXIANJUYOUTESHUYIYI。

  ZHENGCEDI(2018NIAN3JIDU)、SHICHANGDI(2019NIAN1JIDU)、JINGJIDI(2019NIANZHONG)JIANGXIANHOUCHUXIAN:2018NIAN11YUEM2JIANGZHILISHIDIWEI,2019NIANCHUM2HESHERONGZENGSUCHUDIHUISHENG,KUANHUOBIKUANXINYONGZHENGCEKAISHIJIANXIAO,DANYUJIHUISHENGFUDUBUDA,BUHUIDASHUIMANGUAN。2019NIANGUDINGZICHANTOUZIJIANGCHUDIHUISHENG,DANFUDUBUDA,ZHUYINSHIHUOBIKUANSONG、CAIZHENGJIJIHEQUKUCUNJIESHU。

  四、宏观调控:逆周期调节

  WEILAIHONGGUANZHENGCEJIYAOFANGZHIDUICHONGBUJISHI、LIDUBUGOU,YEYAOFANGZHILIDUGUODA、ZHONGZOULAOLU。

  JIANYI:

新疆福彩18选7走势图   1、JIANYI2019NIANJIANGZHUN4CI。MUQIANZHONGGUODAXING、ZHONGXIAOXINGCUNKUANLEIJINRONGJIGOUCUNZHUNLVYIRANGAODA13.5%HE11.5%,JIANGZHUNKONGJIANDA。

  2、LILVSHICHANGHUAXIA,JIANYIGENGDUODITONGGUOHUOBISHICHANGLILVYINDAOGUANGPULILVXIAJIANG。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   3、CONG“KUANHUOBI”DAO“KUANXINYONG”,JIANYIJINRONGJIANGUANZHENGCECONG“YIDAOQIE”DAOJIEGOUXINGKUANXINYONG,ZHICHISHITIJINGJIFAZHAI、DIFANGJIJIAN、GANGXUHEGAISHANXINGGOUFANGXUQIU、JIHUOGUPIAOSHICHANGDENG。

  4、JIANYICAIZHENGZHENGCEGENGJIJI,SHANGDIAOCHIZILVHEZHUANXIANGZHAIFAXINGGUIMO,ZHICHIJIANSHUIHEJIJIAN,JIANSHUIYOUYUJIJIAN。

  五、中国经济步入“经济L型”的触底期:最好的投资机会就在中国

新疆福彩18选7走势图   ZUOZHEZAI2010NIANCANYUYANJIUTICHU“ZENGSUHUANDANG”,2014NIANDULITICHU“XIN5%BIJIU8%HAO”,2015NIANXIABANNIANTICHU“JINGJILXING”,ZHEISANDAPANDUANYIMAIXIANGCHENG,JUNZAIHONGGUANJINGJILINGYUYINFALEGUANGFANZHENGLUN,DANSUIHOUJUNBEISHISHISUOYANZHENG。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   DANGQIANZHONGGUOJINGJI“ZENGSUHUANDANG”YIJINGCONGKUAISUXIAHUAQIBURUHUANMANCHUDIQI,WEILAI“JINGJILXING”JIANGHUIYOUSANCICHUDI,DIYICICHUDISHI2016NIANCHU,DIERCICHUDIDAYUEZAI2019NIANZHONG,ZAIKUCUNZHOUQIDEBODONGZHONGWANCHENG。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   ZHONGGUOJINGJISHEHUIFAZHANNENGFOUSHIXIAN“ZENGSUHUANDANG”,GOUZHUXINDEGAOZHILIANGZHONGSUZENGZHANGPINGTAI,QUJUEYUNENGFOUTUIDONGXINYILUNGAIGEKAIFANG,JINYIBUSHIFANGQUANQIUHUA、SHICHANGHUA、CHENGSHIHUA、GONGYEHUADEQIANLI,WANCHENGCONGYAOSUQUDONGXIANGCHUANGXINQUDONGDEZHUANXING。

  ZUIHAODETOUZIJIHUIJIUZAIZHONGGUO:2018NIANZHONGGUORENJUNGDPWEI9700MEIYUAN,BUDAOMEIGUODE1/6,FAZHANQIANLIJUDA;2018NIANZHONGGUOCHENGZHENHUALV59.6%,FADAJINGJITIDABUFENCHAOGUO80%;ZHONGGUO14YIREN,YONGYOUQUANQIUZUIDADESHICHANG,MEIGUO3.2YIREN,RIBEN1.3YIREN,DEGUO8000WANREN,QUANQIU77YIREN;ZHONGGUOGDPZENGSU6%YISHANG,SHIMEIGUODE3BEI;ZHONGGUOCHUANGXINCHUANGYESHIFENHUOYUE,XINJINGJIDUJIAOSHOUQIYESHUJINCIYUMEIGUO,ZHONGMEIDUJIAOSHOUQIYEZHANQUANQIU70%;XINYILUNGAIGEKAIFANGJIANGKAIQIXINZHOUQI。

  六、挑战:中美贸易战和人口危机

  1、中美贸易战具有长期性和严峻性

新疆福彩18选7走势图   SUIZHEZHONGGUOJINGJIJUEQI、ZHONGMEICHANYEFENGONGCONGHUBUZOUXIANGJINGZHENGYIJIZHONGMEIZAIJIAZHIGUAN、YISHIXINGTAI、GUOJIAZHILISHANGDECHAYI,JINNIANMEIGUOZHENGJIE、SHANGJIEYIJISHEHUIGEJIEDUIZHONGGUOKANFAFASHENGZHONGDAZHUANBIAN,YINGPAIYANLUNBUDUANTAITOU,BUFENMEIFANGRENSHIRENWEIZHONGGUOSHIZHENGZHISHANGDEWEIQUANZHUYI、JINGJISHANGDEGUOJIAZIBENZHUYI、MAOYISHANGDEZHONGSHANGZHUYI、GUOJIGUANXISHANGDEXINKUOZHANGZHUYI,ZHEISHIDUIMEIGUOLINGDAODEXIFANGSHIJIEDEQUANMIANTIAOZHAN。ZHONGGUOJINGJIJUEQITIAOZHANMEIGUOJINGJIBAQUAN,ZHONGGUOJINJUNGAOKEJITIAOZHANMEIGUOGAOKEJILONGDUANDIWEI(GUOJIFENGONGCONGHUBUZOUXIANGJINGZHENG),ZHONGGUOZHONGSHANGZHUYITIAOZHANMEIGUOMAOYIGUIZE,ZHONGGUO“YIDAIYILU”TIAOZHANMEIGUODIYUANZHENGZHI,ZHONGGUOFAZHANMOSHITIAOZHANMEIGUOYISHIXINGTAIHEXIFANGWENMING。

  ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANCONGXIAYIDAOGUANGYIYOUSIGECENGCI:SUOJIANMAOYINICHA、SHIXIANGONGPINGMAOYIDEJIEGOUXINGGAIGE、BAQUANGUOJIADUIXINXINGDAGUODEZHANLVEEZHI、LENGZHANSIWEIDEYISHIXINGTAIDUIKANG。ZAIZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANKAIDAZHICHU,WOMENXIANMINGDITICHULEYIXIEYUSHICHANGLIUXINGGUANDIANBUTONG:“ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANJUYOUZHANGQIXINGHERIYIYANJUNXING”“ZHEISHIDAZHEMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIQIHAODEEZHI”“ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHAN,WOFANGZUIHAODEYINGDUISHIYIGENGDAJUEXINGENGDAYONGQITUIDONGXINYILUNGAIGEKAIFANG,JIANDINGBUYI。DUICI,WOMENYAOBAOCHIQINGXINGLENGJINGHEZHANLVEDINGLI。”

  GUOQUCHUANTONGDEGUOJIJINGJIDAXUNHUANNANYICHIXU,YIZHONGMEIMAOYIMOCADEXINGSHIZHONGJIE,ZHONGGUOFAZHANDEZHANLVEJIYUQINEIHANFASHENGZHONGDABIANHUA。ZAIWAIXUMIANLINZHONGDADIAOZHENGDEBEIJINGXIA,ZHEIXUYAOZHONGGUOZHONGXINDIAOZHENGWAIXUNEIXU、TOUZIXIAOFEIHECHANYEJIEGOU,BINGSHEJIDAOJIANGDIGUANSHUI、BAOHUZHISHICHANQUAN、FUWUYEKAIFANG、HUJIZHIDUGAIGE、DUOCENGCIZIBENSHICHANGFAZHANDENGYIXILIECHUJILINGHUNDEBIANGE。

  2、渐行渐近的人口危机

  DANGQIANZHONGGUORENKOUWENTIDEHEXINZAOYIBUSHI“LIUYISIGUAIDIAN”,ERSHI“JIANXINGJIANJINDERENKOUWEIJI”:2018NIANCHUSHENGRENKOUJIANGZHI1523WAN,BI2017NIANJIANSHAO200WAN,QUANMIANERHAIZHENGCEBUJIYUQI,ZONGHESHENGYULVJIANGZHI1.52,SHENGYUYIYUANDAFUJIANGDI;YULINGFUNVGUIMOYIJIANDINGXIAHUA,2030NIAN20-35SUIZHULIYULINGFUNVGUIMOJIANGBI2018NIANJIANSHAO29%,QIZHONG25-30SUISHENGYUWANGSHENGQIFUNVJIANGJIANSHAO41%;CHUSHENGRENKOUJIJIANGDAFUXIAHUA,YUJI2030NIANJIANGJIANGZHI1100DUOWAN、JIAO2018NIANJIANSHAO26%;RENKOUKUAISULAOLINGHUA,RENKOUNIANLINGZHONGWEISHUCONG1980NIANDE22SUIKUAISUSHANGSHENGZHI2015NIANDE37SUI,YUJI2030NIANJIANGSHENGZHI43SUI;2017NIAN65SUIJIYISHANGRENKOUBILIDA11.9%,ZHIHOUKUAISUSHANGSHENG,YUJIDAO2050NIANDAYUE30%;15-64SUILAODONGNIANLINGRENKOUBILIZAI2010NIANDAFENGZHI,RENKOUHONGLIXIAOSHI,ZHONGGUO“WEIFUXIANLAO”。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   MIANDUI“JIANXINGJIANJINDERENKOUWEIJI”,WOMENJIANYIDANGQIANJIXULIJIQUANMIANFANGKAISHENGYU,JIAKUAIGOUJIANSHENGYUZHICHITIXI,DALIGULISHENGYU,SHIZHONGQIZONGHESHENGYULVHUISHENGDAO1.8ZUOYOU。YISHISHIXINGCHAYIHUADEGESHUIDIKOUJIJINGJIBUTIEZHENGCE,FUGAICONGHUAIYUNBAOJIANDAO18SUIHUOXUELIJIAOYUJIESHU。ERSHIJIADATUOYUFUWUGONGJI,DALITISHENG0-3SUIRUTUOLVCONGMUQIANDE4%TISHENGZHI40%,BINGDUIGEDAIZHAOLIAOSHIXINGJINGJIGULI。SANSHIJINYIBUWANSHANNVXINGJIUYEQUANYIBAOZHANG,BINGDUIQIYESHIXINGSHENGYUSHUISHOUYOUHUI,JIAKUAIGOUJIANSHENGYUCHENGBENZAIGUOJIA、QIYE、JIATINGZHIJIANHELIYOUXIAODEFENDANJIZHI。SISHIJIAQIANGBAOZHANGFEIHUNSHENGYUDEPINGDENGQUANLI。WUSHIJIADAJIAOYUYILIAOTOURU,BAOCHIFANGJIAZHANGQIWENDING,JIANGDIFUYANGZHIJIECHENGBEN。

  七、以六大领域为突破口,新一轮改革开放开启新周期

新疆福彩18选7走势图   ZUIDADEGAIGESHIKAIFANG,TONGGUOKAIFANGSHIXIANGUOQI、MINQI、WAIQIDENGSHICHANGZHUTIDEGONGPINGJINGZHENGHEYOUSHENGLIETAI。ZHONGGUOCONGLAIDOUBUPAKAIFANG,PADESHIBUKAIFANG。

新疆福彩18选7走势图   GAIGEKAIFANGJINRUSHENSHUIQU。SHIYEDOUSHIRENGANCHULAIDE,KONGTANWUGUO,SHIGANXINGBANG。WEILAIYINGYILIUDAGAIGEWEITUPOKOU,DIAODONGGEFANGMIANJIJIXING:

  1、JIANLIGAOZHILIANGFAZHANDEKAOHETIXI,GULIDIFANGSHIDIAN,DIAODONGDIFANGZHENGFUJIJIXING;

  2、QUANMIANFANGKAIQICHE、JINRONG、SHIYOU、DIANLIDENGXINGYEGUANZHI,JINGZHENGZHONGXING,DIAODONGQIYEJIAJIJIXING;

新疆福彩18选7走势图   3、YIZHONGMEIMAOYIZHANWEIQIJI,JIANGDIGUANSHUI、FANGKAIXINGYETOUZIXIANZHI、JIAQIANGZHISHICHANQUANBAOHU,JIJITUIDONGJIANLIZHONGMEIZIMAOQU,DIAODONGWAIZIJIJIXING;

新疆福彩18选7走势图   4、DAGUIMOJIANSHUIJIANGFEI,CONGSUIPIANHUA、TEHUISHIJIANSHUIZHUANXIANGYILANZI、PUHUISHIJIANSHUI,QUANMIANJIANGDIQIYESUODESHUI、ZHIZAOYEZENGZHISHUI、GERENSUODESHUISHUILV,TIGAOQIYEHEJUMINDEHUODEGAN。TONGSHI,TONGGUOJIANZHENGFANGQUANHEJIGOUGAIGE,YASUORONGYURENYUANJIZHICHU,DIAODONGQIYEHEJUMINDEJIJIXING;

新疆福彩18选7走势图   5、DALIFAZHANDUOCENGCIZIBENSHICHANG,JIANSHAOXINGZHENGGANYUDETONGSHIJIAQIANGFAZHIJIANGUAN,GULIBINGGOUZHONGZU,TUIDONGYIXINXIPILU、YANCHENGZHONGFA、TUISHIZHIDUDENGWEIHEXINDEZHUCEZHI,DIAODONGXINJINGJIHEPEVCFENGTOUDEJIJIXING;

  6、JIANLIJUZHUDAOXIANGDEZHUFANGZHIDUHEZHANGXIAOJIZHI,GUANJIANSHIRENDIGUAGOUHEJINRONGWENJIAN。JINKUAIGAIBIANGUOQU“KONGZHIDACHENGSHIRENKOU、JIJIFAZHANZHONGXIAOCHENGSHIHEXIAOCHENGZHEN、QUYUJUNHENGFAZHAN”DECHENGZHENHUASILU,QUELIYIDACHENGSHIWEIYINLINGDEDOUSHIQUANCHENGSHIQUNDECHENGSHIGUIHUAQUYUGUIHUAZHANLVE,YAOCUJINRENKOU、TUDI、JISHUDENGYAOSUZIYOUCHONGFENLIUDONG,DIAODONGGEQUYUJIJIXING。

 

MIANZESHENGMING:BENZHANCHULEYUZHENGWENTEBIEBIAOMINGWANGZHANYUANCHUANGGAOJIANDENEIRONG,QITAJUNLAIZIYUWANGYOUTOUGAOHUOHULIANWANG,QIYUANCHUANGXINGYIJIWENZHONGCHENSHUNEIRONGWEIJINGBENZHANZHENGSHI,DUIBENWENQUANBUHUOZHEBUFENWENZI、TUPIANDEZHENSHIXING、WANZHENGXING、JISHIXINGBENZHANBUZUORENHEBAOZHENGHUOCHENGNUO,QINGDUZHEJINZUOCANKAO,BINGQINGZIXINGHESHIXIANGGUANNEIRONG。BENZHANSUOFABUTUPIANHUOWENZINEIRONGRUOSHEJIBANQUANWENTI,QINGJISHILIANXIBENZHANGONGZUORENYUANYUYIJIEJUE。